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Mapping of $b$ -Value Anomalies Along the Strike-Slip Fault System on the Thailand–Myanmar Border: Implications for Upcoming Earthquakes

Santi Pailoplee

Earthquake and Tectonic Geology Research Unit (EATGRU), Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand

E-mail Address: [email protected]

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https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793431116710019Cited by:1

Abstract

In order to determine the prospective areas of the forthcoming earthquake sources, the $b$ -values of the frequency-magnitude earthquake distributions were analyzed spatially and mapped along the strike-slip fault system at the Thailand–Myanmar border. In order to constrain the relationship between the variation of $b$ and the following hazardous earthquake, the completeness of earthquake catalogue was manipulated into two datasets for (i) 1980–2000 and (ii) 1980–2005 and the $b$ -values mapped. Utilizing the suitable assumption of 30 fixed earthquake events, the following $M_{w} \geq 5.0$ earthquakes illustrate a significant relation between their epicenter and the areas showing relatively low $b$ -values. By utilizing the most recent earthquake data (1980–2015), five areas exhibiting low $b$ -values (implying prospective earthquake sources) can be identified along the strike-slip fault system. Compared with earthquake activities evaluated previously along the strike-slip fault system, the data reveal that these five areas may potentially generate earthquakes up to 7.0 $M_{w}$ within the coming 50 years; the recurrence of the $M_{w}$ -5.0 earthquake is about 10 years and the probabilities of the $M_{w}$ -5.0 earthquake are about 40–95%, respectively. Since these prospective hazardous seismic zones are located close to cities, population centers and hydropower dams, an effective mitigation plan should be developed.

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