World Scientific
  • Search
  •   
Skip main navigation

Cookies Notification

We use cookies on this site to enhance your user experience. By continuing to browse the site, you consent to the use of our cookies. Learn More
×

System Upgrade on Tue, May 28th, 2024 at 2am (EDT)

Existing users will be able to log into the site and access content. However, E-commerce and registration of new users may not be available for up to 12 hours.
For online purchase, please visit us again. Contact us at [email protected] for any enquiries.

EBOLA OUTBREAKS AND INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS: CASE STUDIES OF CENTRAL AND WEST AFRICA REGIONS

    https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218339020400070Cited by:5 (Source: Crossref)
    This article is part of the issue:

    Ebola outbreaks in Africa have occurred mostly in the Central and West Africa regions that are politically identified as the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS), respectively. In the ECOWAS region, people and goods are allowed to travel freely across national borders of all the 15 member countries, but in the ECCAS region such regional travel across the national borders of its 10 member countries is limited. In this paper, we use parameterized mathematical models of Ebola to investigate the effects of free international travel, and the timing of border closings, on the high number of Ebola infection cases and deaths of the recent 2014–2016 Ebola outbreaks in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (ECOWAS); as compared to previous and current outbreaks in Democratic Republic of Congo (ECCAS, 1976–2018). Simulations of our single-patch Ebola model without movement of humans across international borders are shown to capture the recorded numbers of Ebola infections and deaths in the ECCAS region, and simulations of our 3-patch model with interpatch movements capture that of the ECOWAS region. We obtain that international travel restrictions and timing of border closings can play important roles in mitigating against the spread of future fatal infectious disease outbreaks.

    References

    • 1. CDC, The Road to Zero: CDC’s Response to the West African Ebola Epidemic, 2014–2015, Center for Disease Control and Preventions, 2015. Google Scholar
    • 2. WHO, Ebola Situation Report, World Health Organization, 2015. Google Scholar
    • 3. FAO, La Transhumance Transfrontalière en Afrique de l’Ouest: Proposition de Plan d’Action, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2012. Google Scholar
    • 4. H’Midouche M, Moulot MJ, Mohamedou EI, Ijeh S, Zhang J, Mougani G et al., Document de Stratégie d’Intégration Régionale pour l’Afrique de l’Ouest 2011–2015, ORWA/ORWB et ONRI — Banque Africaine de Developpement, Fond Africain de Developpement, 2011. Google Scholar
    • 5. Zafar A, Kubota K, Regional Integration in Central Africa: Key Issues, Africa Region Working Paper Series, No. 52, 2003. Google Scholar
    • 6. CEEAC/ECCAS, Communauté Economique des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale: Note sur l’état de mise en oeuvre de la zone de libre échange (ZLE) de la CEEAC, CEEAC — Rapports, 2017. Google Scholar
    • 7. WHO, Ebola situation reports: Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018, http://wwwwhoint/ebola/situation-reports/drc-2018/en/. Google Scholar
    • 8. BEAC, Banque des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale: Décision du Commité de Politique Monétaire No 02/CPM/2013 portant réaménagemnet de la grille de rémunération des dépôts publics par la BEAC, Comité de Politique Monétaire, 2015 Séance du 19 July; 9, 2013. Google Scholar
    • 9. WHO, Ebola virus disease. WHO Media Centre: Fact Sheet, No. 103, 2016. Google Scholar
    • 10. Chowell D, Hengartner NW, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Hyman JM , The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: The cases of Congo and Uganda, J Theor Biol 229 :119–126, 2004. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 11. Webb G, Browne C, Huo X, Seydi O, Seydi M, Magal P , A model of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa with contact tracing, PLoS Curr. 2015 Jan 30; https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.846b2a31ef37018b7d1126a9c8adf22a. PMID: 25685636; PMCID: PMC4323422. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
    • 12. Chowell D, Castillo-Chavez C, Krishna S, Qiu X, Anderson KS , Modeling the effect of early detection of Ebola, Lancet Infect Dis 15(2) :148–149, 2015. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 13. Bichara D, Kang Y, Castillo-Chavez C, Horan R, Perrings C , SIS and SIR epidemic models under virtual dispersal, Bull Math Biol 77(11) :2004–2034, 2015. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 14. Ngwa GA, Teboh-Ewungkem M , A mathematical model with quarantine states for the dynamics of Ebola virus disease in human populations, Comput Math Methods Med 2016 :1–29, 2016. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 15. Drake JM, Bakach I, Just MR, O’Regan SM, Gambhir M, Fung IC , Transmission models of historical Ebola outbreaks, Emerg Infect Dis 21(8) :1447–1450, 2015. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 16. Li SL, Bjørnstad ON, Ferrari MJ et al., Essential information: Uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 114(22) :5659–5664, 2017. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 17. Chretien J, Riley S, George DB , Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic, eLife Dig 4(e09186) :1–15, 2015. Google Scholar
    • 18. Agusto FB, Teboh-Ewungkem MI, Gumel AB , Mathematical assessment of the effect of traditional beliefs and customs on the transmission dynamics of the 2014 Ebola outbreaks, BMC Med 13(96) 1–17, 2015. Google Scholar
    • 19. CDC, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Signs and Symptoms, Center for Disease Control and Prevention (archived), 2014. Google Scholar
    • 20. Khan AS, Tshioko FK, Heymann DL, Guenno BL, Nabeth P, Kerstiens B et al., The reemergence of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995, J Infect Dis 179(Suppl 1) :S76–S86, 1999. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 21. CDC, 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa epidemics curves, US Department of Health and Human Services, 2019, Last reviewed April 3. Google Scholar
    • 22. CDC, Key facts, https://wwwcdcgov/dotw/ebola/indexhtml, Accessed April 2020. Google Scholar
    • 23. Baker A, Liberia burns its Bodies as Ebola fears run rampant, TIME — World — Ebola, 2014, https://time.com/3478238/ebola–liberia–burials–cremation–burned/. Google Scholar
    • 24. Mazumdar T, Ebola virus burial teams may have ‘saved thousands of lives’, BBC News — Health, 2017, https://www.bbc.com/news/health–40375693. Google Scholar
    • 25. Schnirring L, Probe of Ebola burial practices pinpoints risks, triggers changes, Center for Infection Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), 2015, Ebola-VHF. Google Scholar
    • 26. Mobula LM, MacDermott N, Hoggart C, Brantly K, Plyler W, Brown J et al., Clinical manifestations and modes of death among patients with Ebola virus disease, Monrovia, Liberia, 2014, Am J Trop Med Hyg 98(4) :1186–1193, 2018. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 27. Malvy D, McElroy AK, de Clerck H, Günther S, van Griensven J , Ebola virus disease, Lancet 393(10174) :936–948, 2019. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 28. van Kerkhove MD, Bento AI, Mills HL, Fergusson NM, Donnelly CA , A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making, Sci Data 2(150019) :1–10, 2015. Google Scholar
    • 29. Arino J, van den Driessche P , Disease spread in metapopulations, in Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolution Equations, pp. 1–12. Amer. Math. Soc., Providence, RI, 2006. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
    • 30. Gonzalez PA, Roberto A, Sanchez BN, Castillo-Chavez C, Yakubu A, Dispersal between two patches in a discrete time SEIS model, Cornell University. Biometrics Unit; Cornell University, Department of Biometrics; Cornell University, Department of Biological Statistics and Computational Biology; 2000, Biometrics Unit Technical Reports, Number BU-1531-M. Google Scholar
    • 31. Nourridine S, Teboh-Ewungkem MI, Ngwa GA , A mathematical model of the population dynamics of disease-transmitting vectors with spatial consideration, J Biol Dyn 5(4) :335–365, 2011. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
    • 32. Manore CA, Hickmann KS, Hyman JM, Foppa IM, Davis JK, Wesson DM et al., A network-patch methodology for adapting agent-based models for directly transmitted disease to mosquito-borne disease, J Biol Dyn 9(1) :52–72, 2015. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 33. Tewa JJ, Bowong S, Mewoli B , Mathematical analysis of two-patch model for the dynamical transmission of tuberculosis, Appl Math Model 36(6) :2466–2485, 2012. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 34. Laohombe A, Eya IN, Tewa JJ, Bah A, Bowaong S, Noutchie SCO , Mathematical Analysis of a general two-patch model of tuberculosis disease with lost sight individuals, Abstr Appl Anal 2014 :1–14, 2014. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
    • 35. Rogers K, Ebola outbreak of 2014–16, in Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc. August 28, 2019. Google Scholar
    • 36. Christensen J, Liberia closes its borders to stop Ebola, CNN, 2014. Google Scholar
    • 37. Health News, Sierra Leone shuts borders, closes schools to fight Ebola, Reuters, 2014. Google Scholar
    • 38. Global Development, West Africa in quarantine: Ebola, closed borders and travel bans, The Guardian, 2014. Google Scholar
    • 39. News–Africa, Ebola crisis: Liberia to open borders as infection falls, BBC, 2015. Google Scholar
    • 40. Chowell G, Viboud C, Smonsen L, Merler S, Vespignami A , Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: Lessons and the way forward, BMC Med 15(1) :42, 2017. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar
    • 41. Jallanzo A, Ebola: Economic Impact Could Be Devastating, Sep. 17, 2014, The World Bank IBRD-IDA, https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/ebola-economic-analysis-ebola-long-term-economic-impact-could-be-devastating. Google Scholar
    • 42. Castillo-Chavez C, Bichara D, Morin BR , Perspectives on the role of mobility, behavior, and time scales in the spread of diseases, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 113 :1–7, 2016. Crossref, Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar