No Access

ON THE SOCIAL AND COGNITIVE DIMENSIONS OF WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS CHARACTERIZED BY CONCEPTUAL AND SOLUTION UNCERTAINTY

Department of Management of Complex Systems, Ernest and Julio Gallo Management Program, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, California 95343, USA

E-mail Address: [email protected]

Corresponding author.

Search for more papers by this author

OSCAR YANDY ROMERO GOYENECHE

Utrecht University Centre for Global Challenges, the Netherlands

E-mail Address: [email protected]

Search for more papers by this author

MEREDITH GORE

Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742 USA

E-mail Address: [email protected]

Search for more papers by this author

GASTON HEIMERIKS

Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, the Netherlands

E-mail Address: [email protected]

Search for more papers by this author

JEFFREY JENKINS

Department of Management of Complex Systems, Ernest and Julio Gallo Management Program, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, California 95343, USA

E-mail Address: [email protected]

Search for more papers by this author

, and

ALEXANDER M. PETERSEN

Department of Management of Complex Systems, Ernest and Julio Gallo Management Program, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, California 95343, USA

E-mail Address: [email protected]

Corresponding author.

Search for more papers by this author

https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525921500053Cited by:12 (Source: Crossref)

This article is part of the issue:

Special Issue on Success in Science
Guest Editors: Luca Verginer, Giacomo Vaccario and Alexander M. Petersen

Abstract

We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdependent global systems and the systemic risk they pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined, and thus mis-identified and under-appreciated by communities of problem-solvers. While there are well-documented benefits to tackling boundary-crossing problems from various viewpoints, the integration of diverse approaches can nevertheless contribute confusion around the collective understanding of the core concepts and feasible solutions. We explore this paradox by analyzing the development of both scholarly (social) and topical (cognitive) communities — two facets of knowledge production studies here that contribute towards the evolution of knowledge in and around a problem, termed a knowledge trajectory — associated with three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of social and cognitive diversity growth is an indicator of reduced uncertainty in the evolution of the comprehensive knowledge trajectory emerging around each wicked problem. Informed by comprehensive bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitive dimensions of each problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assesses the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickedness associated with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our results identify wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to address given recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.

Keywords:

References

1. Alford, J. and Head, B. W., Wicked and less wicked problems: A typology and a contingency framework, Policy Soc. 36 [2017] 397–413. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
2. Arroyave, F. J., Petersen, A. M., Jenkins, J. and Hurtado, R., Multiplex networks reveal geographic constraints on illicit wildlife trafficking, Appl. Netw. Sci. 5 [2020] 20. Crossref, Google Scholar
3. Bammer, G., O’Rourke, M., O’Connell, D., Neuhauser, L., Midgley, G., Klein, J. T., Grigg, N. J., Gadlin, H., Elsum, I. R., Bursztyn, M., Fulton, E. A., Pohl, C., Smithson, M., Vilsmaier, U., Bergmann, M., Jaeger, J., Merkx, F., Vienni Baptista, B., Burgman, M. A., Walker, D. H., Young, J., Bradbury, H., Crawford, L., Haryanto, B., Pachanee, C.-A., Polk, M. and Richardson, G. P., Expertise in research integration and implementation for tackling complex problems: When is it needed, where can it be found and how can it be strengthened?, Palgrave Commun. 6 [2020] 5. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
4. Barbier, E. B. and Rauscher, M., Trade, Tropical deforestation and policy interventions, in Trade, Innovation, Environment, ed. Carraro, C. (Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 1994), pp. 55–74. Crossref, Google Scholar
5. Barney, J. N. and DiTomaso, J. M., Global climate niche estimates for bioenergy crops and invasive species of agronomic origin: Potential problems and opportunities, PLoS ONE 6 [2011] e17222. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
6. Batie, S. S., Wicked Problems and Applied Economics, Am. J. Agric. Econ. 90 [2008] 1176–1191. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
7. Bettencourt, L. and Kaur, J., Evolution and structure of sustainability science, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108 [2011] 19540–19545. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
8. Bettencourt, L. M., Kaiser, D. I. and Kaur, J., Scientific discovery and topological transitions in collaboration networks, J. Informetr. 3 [2009] 210–221. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
9 Bettencourt, L. M. A., Kaiser, D. I., Kaur, J., Castillo-Chávez, C. and Wojick, D. E., Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields, Scientometrics 75 [2008] 495–518. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
10. Bloomfield, J. and Steward, F., The politics of the green new deal, Polit. Q. 91 [2020] 770–779. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
11. Bonaccorsi, A., Search regimes and the industrial dynamics of science, Minerva 46 [2008] 285. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
12. Boschma, R., Proximity and innovation: A critical assessment, Reg. Stud. 39 [2005] 61–74. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
13. Boschma, R., Heimeriks, G. and Balland, P.-A., Scientific knowledge dynamics and relatedness in biotech cities, Res. Policy 43 [2014] 107–114. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
14. Calero-Medina, C. and Noyons, E. C., Combining mapping and citation network analysis for a better understanding of the scientific development: The case of the absorptive capacity field, J. Informetr. 2 [2008] 272–279. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
15. Camillus, J. C., Strategy as a wicked problem, Harv. Bus. Rev. 86 [2008] 98. Web of Science, Google Scholar
16. Carrasco, L. R., Nghiem, T. P. L., Chen, Z. and Barbier, E. B., Unsustainable development pathways caused by tropical deforestation, Sci. Adv. 3 [2017] e1602602. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
17. Casals, M., Gil, M. and Gil, P., The fuzzy decision problem: An approach to the problem of testing statistical hypotheses with fuzzy information, Eur. J. Oper. Res. 27 [1986] 371–382. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
18. Cassey, P., Blackburn, T. M., Sol, D., Duncan, R. P. and Lockwood, J. L., Global patterns of introduction effort and establishment success in birds, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B 271 [2004] S405–S408. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
19. Challender, D. W. et al., Mischaracterizing wildlife trade and its impacts may mislead policy processes, Conserv. Lett. [2021] e12832. Web of Science, Google Scholar
20. Ciarli, T. and Rafols, I., The relation between research priorities and societal demands: The case of rice, Research Policy 48(4) [2019] 949–967. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
21. Council, N. R., Convergence: Facilitating Transdisciplinary Integration of Life Sciences, Physical Sciences, Engineering, and Beyond (National Academies Press, 2014). Google Scholar
22. Crane, D. and Kaplan, N., Invisible colleges: Diffusion of knowledge in scientific communities, Phys. Today 26 [1973] 72. Crossref, Google Scholar
23. Csardi, G. et al., The igraph software package for complex network research, Int. J. Complex Syst. 1695 [2006] 1–9. Google Scholar
24. DeFries, R. and Nagendra, H., Ecosystem management as a wicked problem, Science 356 [2017] 265–270. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
25. Dolfsma, W. and Leydesdorff, L., Lock-in and break-out from technological trajectories: Modeling and policy implications, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 76 [2009] 932–941. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
26. Fagerberg, J. and Verspagen, B., Innovation studies: The emerging structure of a new scientific field, Res. Policy 38 [2009] 218–233. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
27. Folke, C., Colding, J., Olsson, P. and Hahn, T., Interdependent social-ecological systems and adaptive governance for ecosystem services, in The SAGE Handbook of Environment and Society. (SAGE Publications Ltd., London, 2007). Crossref, Google Scholar
28. Frenken, K., Hardeman, S. and Hoekman, J., Spatial scientometrics: Towards a cumulative research program, J. Informetr. 3 [2009] 222–232. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
29. Funk, R. J. and Owen-Smith, J., A dynamic network measure of technological change, Manage. Sci. 63 [2017] 791–817. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
30. Funtowicz, S. O. and Ravetz, J. R., Risk management as a postnormal science, Risk Anal. 12 [1992] 95–97. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
31. Funtowicz, S. O. and Ravetz, J. R., Uncertainty, complexity and post-normal science, Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 13 [1994] 1881–1885. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
32. Granovetter, M., Economic action and social structure: The problem of embeddedness, Am. J. Sociol. 91 [1985] 481–510. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
33. Grauwin, S. and Jensen, P., Mapping scientific institutions, Scientometrics 89 [2011] 943–954. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
34. Guo, H., Weingart, S. and Brner, K., Mixed-indicators model for identifying emerging research areas, Scientometrics 89 [2011] 421–435. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
35. Harrison, D. A. and Klein, K. J., What’s the difference? Diversity constructs as separation, variety, or disparity in organizations, Acad. Manage. Rev. 32 [2007] 1199–1228. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
36. Head, B. W., Wicked problems in public policy, Public Policy 3 [2008] 101–118. Google Scholar
37. Head, B. W., Forty years of wicked problems literature: Forging closer links to policy studies, Policy Soc. 38 [2019] 180–197. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
38. Heifetz, R. A. and Heifetz, R., Leadership Without Easy Answers, Vol. 465 (Harvard University Press, Harvard, 1994). Crossref, Google Scholar
39. Heimeriks, G. and Balland, P.-A., How smart is specialisation? An analysis of specialisation patterns in knowledge production, Sci. Public Policy 43 [2016] 562–574. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
40. Heimeriks, G. and Leydesdorff, L., Emerging search regimes: Measuring co-evolutions among research, science, and society, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 24 [2012] 51–67. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
41. Helbing, D., Globally networked risks and how to respond, Nature 497 [2013] 51–59. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
42. Hulme, P. E., Trade, transport and trouble: Managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization, J. Appl. Ecol. 46 [2009] 10–18. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
43. Kessler, M. M., Bibliographic coupling between scientific papers, Am. Doc. 14 [1963] 10–25. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
44. Latour, B. and Woolgar, S., Laboratory Life (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2013). Crossref, Google Scholar
45. Leydesdorff, L., Carley, S. and Rafols, I., Global maps of science based on the new Web-of-Science categories, Scientometrics 94 [2013] 589–593. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
46. Leydesdorff, L. and Etzkowitz, H., Emergence of a triple helix of university–industry–government relations, Sci. Public Policy 23 [1996] 279–286. Google Scholar
47. Light, A., Kasper, E., and Hielscher, S., Wicked solutions: SDGs, research design and the unfinishedness of sustainability, preprint, SocArXiv (2020), doi:10.31235/osf.io/m948c, https://osf.io/m948c. Google Scholar
48. Linkov, I., Wood, M. and Bates, M., Scientific Convergence: Dealing with the Elephant in the Room (ACS Publications, 2014). Google Scholar
49. Malhi, Y., Roberts, J. T., Betts, R. A., Killeen, T. J., Li, W. and Nobre, C. A., Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon, Science 319 [2008] 169–172. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
50. Masterson, K. M., The Malaria Project: The US Government’s Secret Mission to Find a Miracle Cure (Penguin, 2014). Google Scholar
51. McCune, B., Grace, J. B., and Urban, D. L., Analysis of Ecological Communities, Vol. 28 (MjM software design Gleneden Beach, OR, 2002). Google Scholar
52. Milojević, S., Accuracy of simple, initials-based methods for author name disambiguation, J. Informetr. 7 [2013] 767–773. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
53. Mooney, H. A. and Cleland, E. E., The evolutionary impact of invasive species, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 98 [2001] 5446–5451. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
54. Newman, M., Networks (Oxford University Press, 2018). Crossref, Google Scholar
55. Palacios-Núñez, G., Vélez-Cuartas, G. and Botero, J. D., Developmental tendencies in the academic field of intellectual property through the identification of invisible colleges, Scientometrics 115 [2018] 1561–1574. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
56. Patterson, J., Schulz, K., Vervoort, J., van der Hel, S., Widerberg, O., Adler, C., Hurlbert, M., Anderton, K., Sethi, M. and Barau, A., Exploring the governance and politics of transformations towards sustainability, Environ. Innov. Soc. Transit. 24 [2017] 1–16. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
57. Petersen, A. M., Quantifying the impact of weak, strong, and super ties in scientific careers, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112 [2015] E4671–E4680. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
58. Petersen, A. M., Multiscale impact of researcher mobility, J. R. Soc. Interface 15 [2018] 20180580. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
59. Petersen, A. M., Ahmed, M. E. and Pavlidis, I., Grand challenges and emergent modes of convergence science, Humanit. Soc. Sci. Commun. 8 [2021] 1–15. Crossref, Google Scholar
60. Petersen, A. M. and Penner, O., Inequality and cumulative advantage in science careers: A case study of high-impact journals, EPJ Data Sci. 3 [2014] 24. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
61. Rafols, I. and Meyer, M., Diversity and network coherence as indicators of interdisciplinarity: Case studies in bionanoscience, Scientometrics 82 [2010] 263–287. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
62. Ramirez, M., Estevez, J. H. G., Goyeneche, O. Y. R. and Rodriguez, C. E. O., Fostering place-based coalitions between social movements and science for sustainable urban environments: A case of embedded agency, Environ. Plan. C 38 [2020] 1386–1411. Google Scholar
63. Ramirez, M., Romero, O., Schot, J. and Arroyave, F., Mobilizing the transformative power of the research system for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, SPRU Working Paper Series (2018) 28. Google Scholar
64. Reinders, M., The role of social networks: Mark Granovetter, in Transformation and Sustainability in Agriculture, ed. Vellema, S. (Wageningen Academic Publishers, Wageningen, 2011), ISBN 978-90-8686-717-2, pp. 49–56. Crossref, Google Scholar
65. Rittel, H. W. J. and Webber, M. M., Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sci. 4 [1973] 155–169. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
66. Sachs, J., The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time (Penguin Press, New York, 2005). Google Scholar
67. Savard, J. and Morin, C. M., Insomnia in the context of cancer: A review of a neglected problem, J. Clin. Oncol. 19 [2001] 895–908. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
68. Scheffers, B. R., Oliveira, B. F., Lamb, I. and Edwards, D. P., Global wildlife trade across the tree of life, Science 366 [2019] 71–76. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
69. Schot, J. and Kanger, L., Deep transitions: Emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality, Res. Policy 47 [2018] 1045–1059. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
70. Schot, J. and Steinmueller, W. E., Three frames for innovation policy: R&D, systems of innovation and transformative change, Res. Policy 47 [2018] 1554–1567. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
71. Shackleton, R. T., Shackleton, C. M. and Kull, C. A., The role of invasive alien species in shaping local livelihoods and human well-being: A review, J. Environ. Manage. 229 [2019] 145–157. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
72. Shiffrin, R. M. and Borner, K., Mapping knowledge domains, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101 [2004] 5183–5185. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
73. Smith, A. and Stirling, A., Social-ecological resilience and socio-technical transitions: Critical issues for sustainability governance, STEPS Working Paper 8 (2008) 2–25. Google Scholar
74. Soule, M. E., What is conservation biology?, BioScience 35 [1985] 727–734. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
75. Soule, M. E., What is environmental studies?, BioScience 48 [1998] 397–405. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
76. Stirling, A., A general framework for analysing diversity in science, technology and society, J. R. Soc. Interface 4 [2007] 707–719. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
77. Stirling, A., Keep it complex, Nature 468 [2010] 1029–1031. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
78. Sun, X., Kaur, J., Milojevi, S., Flammini, A. and Menczer, F., Social dynamics of science, Sci. Rep. 3 [2013] 1069. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
79. Swenson, N. G., Functional and Phylogenetic Ecology in R (Springer, New York, 2014). Crossref, Google Scholar
80. Team, R. C. et al., R: A language and environment for statistical computing (2013). Google Scholar
81. Uzzi, B., Mukherjee, S., Stringer, M. and Jones, B., Atypical combinations and scientific impact, Science 342 [2013] 468–472. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
82. van Uhm, D. P., The social construction of the value of wildlife: A green cultural criminological perspective, Theor. Criminol. 22 [2018] 384–401. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
83. Velden, T., Boyack, K. W., Gläser, J., Koopman, R., Scharnhorst, A., Wang, S., et al., Comparison of topic extraction approaches and their results, Scientometrics 111 [2017] 1169–1221. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
84. Wagner, C. S. and Leydesdorff, L., Network structure, self-organization, and the growth of international collaboration in science, Res. Policy 34 [2005] 1608–1618. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
85. Wagner, C. S., Roessner, J. D., Bobb, K., Klein, J. T., Boyack, K. W., Keyton, J., Rafols, I. and Börner, K., Approaches to understanding and measuring interdisciplinary scientific research (idr): A review of the literature, J. Informetr. 5 [2011] 14–26. Crossref, Web of Science, Google Scholar
86. Willcox, G. H., A history of deforestation as indicated by charcoal analysis of four sites in eastern Anatolia, Anatol. Stud. 24 [1974] 117–133. Crossref, Google Scholar
87. Wucker, M., The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, 1st edn. (St. Martin’s Press, New York, 2016). Google Scholar