MODELING LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WATER LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS

The focus of this paper is on the development and application of a reduced-complexity shoreline model that explicitly accounts for the enhanced shoreline changes that occur due to water level changes. Contrary to previous shoreline models, this model accounts for wave and water level disequilibrium as well as passive flooding, which makes it suitable for simulating shorelines with large water level fluctuations. The model was applied to four segments of Lake Michigan shoreline. Shoreline time series were extracted from high resolution multispectral satellite images and used for calibrating and testing the model. The model was able to accurately simulate the observed shoreline changes at the four sites and reproduce the seasonal and interannual shoreline changes. The simulation results highlight the relative importance of the water level disequilibrium and waves disequilibrium for each site. Additionally, the results highlight the potential importance of accounting for other coastal processes in the proposed model.